Hot summer for as infiltration rises

With the violence graph in Jammu & Kashmir heading north in the first three months of 2010 — read 65 infiltration attempts, 126 militancy-related incidents, 18 civilian and 18 force casualties as well as 45 encounters that have left 53 militants neutralised — as compared to the 2009, the security establishment is gearing up for a hot summer ahead.

“There has been an overall jump in violence levels in J&K in 2010, reversing the trend of the last few years...not only was infiltration till March this year higher than the corresponding period of 2009, but even violent incidents and killings of civilians/security forces and terrorists have gone up,” admitted a senior intelligence official here. With snow now starting to melt in the higher reaches, the infiltration will only pick up further, leading to more violence, warn the security agencies.

A comparison of the violence indicators for the first three months of 2010 and 2009 confirms that the agencies’ projection of a hot summer in J&K is with good reason. Militancy and terror-related incidents have risen to 126 during January-March 2010 from 95 during the same period last year. Of the 126 incidents, 10 were explosions (up from four in 2009), 12 grenade attacks (down from 14), 45 cross-firing cases (41 in 2009) and 18 random firing cases (up from four in 2009).

Similarly, casualties, both of civilians and security forces, have shown an upward trend in the just-concluded 2010 quarter. As compared to eight civilians killed and 14 injured in 2009, 18 civilians have lost their lives and 84 injured so far in 2010. While 10 civilians were killed at the hands of the militants, eight died in militancy-related violence.

Security forces too were at the receiving end of the rise in terrorist violence. Though the number of personnel — from the Army, Central forces and J&K Police — killed in the first three months of 2009 and 2010 was constant at 18, the injured were higher at 39 in 2010 from 18 in 2009. The silver lining, however, is that terrorists were repulsed by the security forces in equal measure. Encounters between terrorists and security forces in J&K went up to 45 in 2010 from 41 in 2009, leading to the killing of 53 terrorists this year as compared to 47 last year.

While nearly 65 identified cases of infiltration attempts — which were successfully repulsed — have come to light in the first three months of 2010, mostly through the Jammu region, the additional new trend this year has been the replacement of human guides with sophisticated navigation equipment like GPS instruments and device to help the terrorists find their way into the Indian side. The decision to do way with the “guides”, mostly the bakarwals (shepherds) living in the higher reaches, is essentially to eliminate potential informers.

Also, the diminishing overground support in the wake of killing of several J&K civilians by the Pakistani terrorists may have forced the terror outfits to make the infiltrators self-dependent. Security inputs suggest that Pakistan Army may be aiding the infiltrators, who are also armed with the state-of-the-art snow-cutters and other snow attire, in the use of GPS technology and are also placing weapons along the infiltration route for arming the infiltrators.

According to intelligence sources, the latest lot of jihadis crossing over is more “hardened” and “committed”, unlike the village boy-turned terror recruit that formed the majority of those sneaking into J&K in the past. “They are well-trained Pakistani jihadis who are ready to die,” noted an intelligence official.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/Hot-summer-for-security-forces-as-infiltration-rises/articleshow/5753336.cms